The monsoon could be pouring down with a vengeance over western India (Saurashtra, Kutch, Gujarat and North Maharashtra) many thanks to a hyperactive lower-stress region whirring in the history, but the rains are about to abate and change in the direction of the Himalayan foothills, East and North-East India.
This is a common indicator of an emerging crack-monsoon-like situation, an unavoidable stage when the monsoon takes a deep breath over the Peninsula, Central and West India and confines action to areas of the West Coastline, the Himalayan foothills and adjoining East and North-East India as stated above.
This is also the time when areas of the East Coastline, specially Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha can hope to receive their share of the monsoon’s spoils with facilitating circumstances developing over the Bay of Bengal. As of now, the Arabian Sea and the Bay resemble ghost cities with nil action.
Rainfall development till July
Rainfall for the region as a whole from June till day (June to July 7) spanning a thirty day period and the 1st week of the typically rainiest thirty day period of July signifies that seventy three per cent of the districts have obtained huge extra, extra or standard rain, though 27 per cent of the districts are in deficit. The crack-monsoon-like situation could include to the deficit in West, Central and Peninsular India but do the exact opposite in North and East.
The most variety of deficit districts are in Uttar Pradesh (27 of seventy five), followed by Gujarat (fourteen of 33) and Rajasthan (twelve of 33). But the monsoon shifting to the North and in the direction of the foothills of Himalayas sooner than later on must support Uttar Pradesh, and to a lesser extent Rajasthan, to redeem the situation.
India Meteorological Office (IMD) reported on Wednesday early morning that the effectively-marked lower hovering over the Gulf of Kutch would proceed to bring fairly prevalent rainfall over Gujarat just before reducing considerably thereafter. Isolated hefty to incredibly hefty rains are also most likely over Saurashtra and Kutch.
Monsoon trough shifting
The monsoon trough that retains the monsoon in position, could start shifting slowly northwards along the foothills of the Himalayas from Thursday. Enhanced convergence of south-westerly/southerly monsoon winds from the Bay previously threatens to swamp North-East and East India from nowadays.
The IMD has forecast prevalent rainfall with isolated hefty to incredibly hefty falls over the North-East, plains of Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh from Wednesday. Isolated exceptionally hefty falls are most likely over Assam and Meghalaya till Saturday Arunachal Pradesh on Thursday and Friday plains of Bengal, Sikkim and East Uttar Pradesh on Saturday and Sunday and over Bihar on Saturday.
This could also worsen the flood situation over East India and North-East India. Moreover, the IMD has recognized regions of rigorous thunderstorm and lightning for the rest of Wednesday across Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, South-East Rajasthan, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand forward of the incoming new wave of rain.